Kenya's Coffee Sector Comeback: What Is Driving the Projected 26% Increase in Production?

Kenya’s Coffee Revival: Is a New Era of Growth Emerging?

For decades, Kenya’s coffee sector was associated with a steady decline. Reduced coffee acreage, ageing plantations, increasing production costs and continued subdivision of agricultural land gradually weakened the country’s position as one of Africa’s leading coffee producers. Production, which reached a peak of approximately 128,000 metric tonnes in the late 1980s, fell dramatically to about 36,000 metric tonnes in 2010. Since then, however, the industry has gradually begun to recover.

The latest Coffee Yearbook provides encouraging evidence of this turnaround. Kenya produced approximately 50,589 metric tonnes of coffee during the 2024/25 coffee year, with production expected to rise by about 26 percent in 2025/26. This renewed growth is generating optimism throughout the coffee value chain. Cooperative societies remain the backbone of the industry, accounting for more than 72 percent of national production, while coffee estates contribute approximately 28 percent.

The bigger question is whether Kenya is witnessing the beginning of a lasting coffee revival or simply experiencing a temporary improvement in production. Understanding what is driving this growth—and whether those factors can be maintained—is critical to the industry's future.

More Land Returning to Coffee Production

One of the major contributors to the recovery has been the gradual expansion of land under coffee. By the 2024/25 coffee year, approximately 117,164 hectares were under coffee cultivation, compared with around 108,000 hectares in 2008/09.

Improved international coffee prices and ongoing reforms within the sector have encouraged some farmers who had previously abandoned coffee to return to production. At the same time, coffee-producing counties have increased efforts to rehabilitate neglected plantations and promote new coffee planting. These initiatives are helping to reverse years of declining acreage.

Improved Coffee Varieties

Another important development is the increased availability and adoption of improved coffee seedlings. Varieties such as Batian and Ruiru 11 are becoming increasingly popular because of their potential for higher yields, disease resistance and improved adaptability to changing climatic conditions.

Traditional varieties such as SL28 and SL34 remain highly valued internationally because of their exceptional cup quality. The growing adoption of improved varieties, therefore, provides farmers with an opportunity to combine productivity with quality.

Gradual Improvement in Productivity

For many years, low productivity has been a bigger challenge for Kenyan coffee farmers than the amount of land available for cultivation. Recent figures, however, indicate modest progress.

Average national coffee yields increased from approximately 444 kilograms per hectare in 2022/23 to about 450 kilograms per hectare in 2024/25.

Although the increase may appear small, it reflects improvements in farming practices, pest and disease management, farmer training and extension services. Government agencies, county governments, development partners and international organisations have all contributed to these capacity-building efforts.

Government Reforms and Farmer Support

Government reforms have also played an important role in the sector's recovery. Recent measures have increasingly focused on improving farmer returns, strengthening cooperative governance and making coffee marketing more transparent.

Other interventions—including subsidised farm inputs, expanded agricultural extension services and improved access to affordable financing—have encouraged farmers to invest more in their coffee farms.

Together, these measures are helping restore confidence among farmers and reposition coffee as an important part of Kenya's agricultural economy.

Strong Export Performance

The recovery is also reflected in Kenya's coffee export performance. During the 2024/25 coffee year, coffee export volumes increased by 3 percent to 50,675 metric tonnes, while export earnings rose by 17.45 percent to USD 343.99 million, equivalent to approximately KES 43.89 billion.

The United States became Kenya's leading coffee export destination, accounting for 21.4 percent of export value, worth approximately USD 71.51 million.

Other major markets included:

Belgium – 16.44%
Germany – 12.53%
Republic of Korea – 5.97%
Canada – 4.87%

These markets demonstrate the continued international demand for Kenyan coffee and its importance as a source of foreign exchange.

Farmers Are Beginning to Benefit

Perhaps the most important indicator of the recovery is its impact on farmers.

The average export price of a 60-kilogram bag increased from approximately USD 357 to USD 407 during the 2024/25 coffee year. Higher international prices contributed to a significant improvement in farmer earnings, with the national average cherry payout increasing by more than 40 percent, from approximately KES 81 per kilogram to KES 114 per kilogram.

For Kenya's more than 800,000 coffee farmers, improved earnings can have a meaningful impact on household livelihoods. Increased income can support education, healthcare, housing, farm investment and other household needs.

Challenges Still Remain

Despite the positive developments, Kenya's coffee revival is not guaranteed. Climate change remains one of the biggest long-term threats to production. Unpredictable rainfall, increasing temperatures and changing weather patterns could negatively affect coffee yields and quality.

Farmers also continue to face high production costs, labour shortages and land fragmentation. Unless these challenges are addressed, they could limit the sector's ability to sustain its current growth.

The Road Ahead

Kenya's projected increase in coffee production should therefore be viewed as more than simply a rise in output. It could represent the early stages of a much broader transformation of the coffee industry.

Sustaining this momentum will require continued investment in farmer productivity, improved access to quality seedlings and inputs, stronger cooperative management, greater value addition, and expanded access to international markets.

If these areas receive consistent attention, Kenya has an opportunity to transform the current recovery into a long-term coffee renaissance.

After years of decline and uncertainty, Kenya's coffee industry is once again showing signs of strength. The challenge now is to ensure that this promising recovery becomes sustainable growth that delivers greater value to farmers and strengthens Kenya's position in the global coffee market.